News Difficult to forecast markets in view of the very difficult international economic recession
In the first six months of 2008 the natural stone industry exported 1 million 610 thousand tons, for a value of 849 million 890 thousand euro, with a -1,7% reduction in quantity and -4,8% reduction in value compared to the same period in 2007. These are the figures published by the Internazionale Marmi e Macchine Carrara, having processed the Istat data available, limiting assessments to the higher value products (marble, granite and travertine, raw materials and finished products) and not products such as chips, powders and slate. If the comparison between the first six months of 2008 and the first six months of 2007 were to include the latter products too the IMM research office claims there would be much higher reductions in terms of quantity and value (see table enclosed Exports Italy All Countries).
These are significant reductions in that they amount to a loss in average value per ton of exports of -3,1% and the comparison between 2007 and 2008 shows positive results in terms of blocks and slabs and negative results in terms of finished products (in particular granite) even though it is difficult to establish to what extent the dollar euro relationship influenced the profitability of the finished products exported, especially in North America.

The average value of finished Italian products confirmed its growth trend for almost all products to the European Union (particularly marble and travertine) as well as the rest of the Continent while the average value of marble and travertine exported to North America rose by approximately +9% per ton. In this six-month period there emerges a very varied picture that is difficult to interpret since it contains positive and negative elements yet in general the situation is tending to get worse.

“The deterioration of the international financial and economic picture is leading to increasing uncertainty and is influencing the reading of the information available which may be useful – commented the IMM Chairman Giorgio Bianchini – to assess the developments underway and those to come over the next few months in terms of the individual markets and types of products. It is clear that in the first six months of 2008 the Italian stone industry experienced serious difficulties, especially on certain markets that count. However, although the situation is predominantly negative there are also positive aspects and the absolute figures remain high, thereby showing the strength of the industry and its capacity to face crises. This is the case even when they are as aggressive as the crisis which has been affecting the financial and economic sectors and credit facilities to the building industry in countries such as the United States that is the most important and most profitable market for Italian producers.”

A more detailed analysis of the most important areas shows in the European Union for example that exports are down compared to the same period in 2007 both in terms of volume (not much more than 407 thousand tons for the major products, -12,4% compared to 2007) and value (281 million 650 thousand euro, with a fall of -5,1% on 2007). This is because even if the euro has protected its average values and safeguarded the quality of its exports, the most important countries have recorded significant reductions, starting from Germany (approx. -20% both in value and volume), with marble (and travertine) finished products alone showing slightly positive results. Among the most important partners for Italian exports, Spain, the Netherlands, Ireland, the Czech Republic and Belgium all show negative results while there are different results for individual products in Austria, Sweden and the United Kingdom.
France and Poland retained positive levels while the extra EU countries which remained important, albeit with reduced volumes and increased values, were Russia, Turkey, Croatia and Ukraine. Worthy of note as a separate case is Switzerland that preferred granite finished products but showed reduced average and absolute values.

In North America, where exports also included Canada which showed positive results in terms of marble, the decline is heavy, concerns all products and the only figures which managed to keep their ground were the average values for marble finished products which amounted to over 106 million euro. The United States remain the major market, accounting for over 22% of Italy’s exports to the tune of 197 million 700 thousand euro, including all products. Nothing new for South and Central America where Italian exports have never really achieved significant levels. In actual fact total exports in the industry towards the sub-continent do not reach 20 million euro in the six-month period. All in all the Middle East is less negative: the entire area does not fluctuate, the average value of exports remain more or less stable with positive results in terms of finished marble and travertine products. The role of Saudi Arabia is important in this scenario as is that of Qatar, while the leading partner, the Emirates, finished the six-month period with negative results for all products compared to the previous year. The trend in the Far East was not very encouraging either even though the two major countries, India and China, recorded growth figures. These however are very limited for the potential size of the markets and moreover they are partners requesting mainly raw materials and semi-finished products from Italy, above all (85% of the figures for China and approx,.62% for India). Hong Kong and Singapore recovered slightly while Japan’s imports fell, not even reaching 4 million euro over all products compared to the already modest 9 and a half last year.
Worthy of a separate note are imports that in the six-month period brought 1 million 500 thousand tons of stone (raw materials and finished products) for a value of almost 290 million euro, 177 of which (61%) of granite, mainly blocks and slabs. Comparison with the first six months of 2007 shows negative figures, -11,7% in volume and -9,3% in value for all products and it is above all the trend concerning blocks and slabs of granite which shows a significant drop both in terms of quantity (-24,8%) and value (-22,3%), while the imports of finished granite products remained positive as did those of other finished stone products.

Of interest too is the fact that out of a total of 35 million euro of granite finished products imported from all countries, approximately 20 come from China and India, with an annual increase of +14,2% in terms of quantity and +16,6% in value. Despite the market difficulties, once again it is granite in blocks and slabs that is the most important imported product with over 142 million euro for 644 thousand tons. The major supplier remains India despite the drop of -27% in value, followed by Brazil and then South Africa while there is an interestintg new feature which comes from central-southern Africa with the growth of Angola and Mozambique, once again exporters of granite and stone after a very long break due to internal problems. In particular Mozambique has equalled Zimbabwe in terms of value and has exceeded it in terms of colume while Angola has lower average values per ton. With regard to “marble blocks” the 2007 producers were once again confirmed in 2008 with Egypt remaining as Italy’s leading supplier, albeit with a reduction compared to last year, closely followed by Turkey whose figures are growing. Positive performances too from other suppliers such as Tunisia, Iran and Macedonia.

Hence, a difficult overall picture with some stability but many reasons for apprehension added to the general situation which spares no-one since the economic model is largely based on the USA’s capacity to drive consumption and move resources. It is difficult to imagine a return of the same economic model as that of the last decades with such significant deregulation and centralisation of countries since globalisation, as many believe, brings about “multicentralisation” that is already obvious in the natural stone industry.
 

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